The NWSL playoff field has shrunk to four teams, but the gap between them is wide. A confidence meter assigns a percentage to each semifinalist based on their recent performance, with Washington Spirit leading the pack.
Top Spot: Washington Spirit
Washington Spirit enters the semifinals with the highest confidence score at 45 percent. They secured their spot by dismantling Portland Thorns 4-1. The team dominated possession and expected goals, finishing with a 59-41 advantage in ball control and a 2.38 to 0.89 xG differential.
Trinity Rodman and Clara Luvanga contributed three goal contributions apiece in the match. Mélissa Bethi added a goal to the tally. The squad controlled the game in the attacking third, registering 28 touches inside the opposition box compared to 17 for the Thorns. Adrián González’s side needs this type of performance to advance.
With Utah Royals eliminating San Diego Wave, the Spirit now have a chance to earn home-field advantage for the final.
Second Place: Kansas City Current
Kansas City Current sits second with 25 percent confidence. They advanced via a 1-0 penalty shootout win over Angel City FC. While the result was positive, the match was not a dominant display. KC Current held a 59-41 edge in possession and led in xG (1.94-1.30) and shots (21-14), but the finishing was lacking.
The team relies on the scoring punch of Temwa Chawinga and Haley Hopkins. If the attack remains silent, Michelle Cooper, Croix Bethune, Lo’eau LaBonta, or Vanessa DiBernardo must step up. The Current have struggled on the road with a 5-9-1 record this season.
Third Place: Gotham FC
Gotham FC holds the third position with a 20 percent confidence rating. They defeated Seattle Reign 1-0 through an own-goal in the fourth minute. The match was described as a brutal display of football, as Gotham generated a measly 0.16 xG.
Fourth Place: Utah Royals
Utah Royals enter the semifinals with only 10 percent confidence. They pulled off a major upset by defeating the No. 2 seed San Diego Wave 1-0 in their playoff debut. Kiana Palacios scored the lone goal, supported by goalkeeper Mandy McGlynn and the backline.
Matchups and Predictions
Game one on Saturday features the Spirit against the Royals at Audi Field. The match will be broadcast on CBS and Vital+. Gotham FC faces Kansas City Current on Sunday at Icahn Stadium on ABC and the ESPN App.