At the midpoint of the 2026 NFL season, 11 teams stand out as potential Super Bowl contenders. These teams, from both the AFC and NFC, have shown promise, but each faces critical questions as the season progresses.
AFC Contenders and Their Challenges
The Jacksonville Jaguars lead the league with a +108 point differential and a strong turnover differential. Trevor Lawrence is performing at an MVP level, and their defense ranks third in Defensive EPA/Play. General manager James Gladstone bolstered the roster with key acquisitions like Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates III, and Davon Godchaux before the trade deadline.
The Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, remain a force with a 7-1 record. Their offense, featuring James Cook and Keon Coleman, is potent. However, their defense has been inconsistent, raising doubts about their ability to perform under pressure.
The Cincinnati Bengals boast an elite offense, with Joe Burrow tied for third in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. The duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins dominates secondaries, while Chase Brown provides a ground threat. Their Expected Points Added per Play trails only the San Francisco 49ers.
Cincinnati’s defense, however, has shown vulnerabilities, such as allowing 36 points to the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.
The Denver Broncos, at 7-2, are a surprise contender. Their EPA metrics suggest a league-average team, but wins against Jacksonville and Kansas City prove otherwise. Their defense struggles against the pass, and their offense is middling, yet they remain atop the AFC standings.
The Kansas City Chiefs, led by a healthy Patrick Mahomes, remain contenders. Their rushing offense, bolstered by Kenneth Walker III, ranks among the league’s best. However, their passing game lacks explosiveness, with only 22 plays of 20 yards or more.
The Pittsburgh Steelers excel in the running game, leading the NFL with an EPA/rush of 0.097. Their defense ranks sixth in EPA/play and fifth in scoring defense. However, their passing game lags, with an EPA/dropback of -0.069, the seventh-lowest in the league.
NFC Contenders and Their Uncertainties
The San Francisco 49ers continue to dominate despite injuries. They lead the NFC standings and are on track for a division title. However, their history of regular-season success followed by playoff disappointment raises questions about their ability to finish.
The Chicago Bears, led by Caleb Williams, are in playoff position as NFC North leaders. Williams is an MVP candidate, and the offense, under Ben Johnson, is formidable. The trade for Jeffery Simmons has strengthened their defense, which showed improvement against the Seattle Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions have a dynamic offense, with Jared Goff ranking fifth in ANY/A and Jahmyr Gibbs providing explosiveness. Their defense, however, has struggled, though recent performances suggest a turnaround.
The Green Bay Packers have a strong case for Jordan Love as midseason MVP. The return of Micah Parsons could boost their defense, but their offensive line has been inconsistent, raising concerns about protecting Love.
The Minnesota Vikings briefly fell off the contender list but rebounded with the trade for Kirk Cousins.
Defensive Adjustments and Offensive Consistency
The Detroit Lions have shown defensive improvement, holding opponents to under 17 points in their last three wins. With Brian Branch expected to return, their defense could strengthen further.
Green Bay’s Defensive Struggles and Offensive Line Concerns
Green Bay’s defense has allowed a high number of points in recent weeks, including 30 to the Saints, 41 to the Bills, 24 to the Jets, and 32 to the Panthers.
Playoff Projections and Key Matchups
The Denver Broncos face a critical test against the Buffalo Bills on Christmas Day. This game will reveal their ability to compete with top AFC teams.