One game remains in Week 9, and it pits the 6-1 Buffalo Bills against the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings, a matchup that could reshape the postseason map in both conferences.
AFC environment before Monday night
The American Football Conference sees the Bills leading at 6-1, followed by the Denver Broncos at 7-2, and a cluster of clubs at 6-2: Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Below them sit New England and Cleveland at 5-4, with the Raiders and Ravens at 4-5.
If the playoffs started now, the Buffalo squad would enjoy home-field advantage. Even a loss would not dethrone them because their conference record stands at 4-1, better than Denver’s 3-1.
Denver would claim the No. 2 seed, Jacksonville the third spot thanks to a 5-2 AFC record, and Pittsburgh would edge Cincinnati in the North based on a head-to-head win.
- New England would be the seventh seed, edging Cleveland on a 5-1 conference record versus 3-3.
- Kansas City secures the fifth seed over Cincinnati, holding a 6-1 AFC record against the Bengals’ 4-2.
Hypothetical first-round pairings would feature New England at Denver, Cincinnati at Jacksonville, and Kansas City at Pittsburgh.
NFC outlook ahead of the clash
In the National Football Conference, San Francisco leads at 7-1, with Minnesota right behind at 6-1. The New York Giants sit at 5-2-1, while the Chicago Bears sit at 7-2 despite playing in the same division as the Lions and Detroit.
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Carolina, despite a 3-5 record, would host a playoff game because a division tiebreaker gives them the edge over New Orleans. Seattle holds a similar advantage over Los Angeles, thanks to a better division record.
The Buccaneers’ loss to Chicago drops them to 3-6, tying them with Atlanta and Arizona. Tampa Bay stays ahead of the latter two thanks to a win over the Falcons and a superior conference record.
- Green Bay would travel to Minnesota as the seventh seed.
- Detroit faces New York as the sixth seed.
- Chicago meets Carolina in the fifth-seed matchup.
What the Bills-Vikings game could change
A victory for Buffalo would lift them to 7-1, cementing the AFC’s premier seed. A defeat would leave them at 7-2, matching Denver, but the conference-record edge would still keep them in the No. 1 slot.
Should Minnesota prevail, they would also rise to 7-1 and claim the NFC’s leading position, edging San Francisco via a strength-of-victory tiebreaker. A loss would drop the Vikings to 6-2, pushing them to sixth in the conference.
In that scenario, Chicago would ascend to the top of the NFC North at 7-2, while Detroit would retain the tiebreaker over Minnesota thanks to a Week 8 win, leaving the Lions ahead of the Vikings in the division race.